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2022~2023年德国内政与外交走势

作者:郑春荣 出版日期:2023年11月 报告页数:17 页 报告大小: 报告字数:18899 字 所属丛书:德国蓝皮书 所属图书:德国发展报告(2023) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2022年是社民党、绿党和自民党在联邦层面组成的、德国历史上第一个三党联合政府执政的第一年。由于受俄乌冲突和对俄罗斯经济制裁的影响,德国经济面临严重的不确定性,德国民众对朔尔茨政府工作满意度持续下降,朔尔茨政府的领导力表现也越发受限。面对俄乌冲突所引发的“时代转折”,在内政上,德国着力解决能源供应瓶颈和气候减排问题,消除能源价格高企等因素造成的社会民生问题;在外交上,德国着力推动外交与安全政策的转型,并努力调整德国的欧盟及美国政策,其结果... 展开

文章摘要:2022年是社民党、绿党和自民党在联邦层面组成的、德国历史上第一个三党联合政府执政的第一年。由于受俄乌冲突和对俄罗斯经济制裁的影响,德国经济面临严重的不确定性,德国民众对朔尔茨政府工作满意度持续下降,朔尔茨政府的领导力表现也越发受限。面对俄乌冲突所引发的“时代转折”,在内政上,德国着力解决能源供应瓶颈和气候减排问题,消除能源价格高企等因素造成的社会民生问题;在外交上,德国着力推动外交与安全政策的转型,并努力调整德国的欧盟及美国政策,其结果是进一步加强了在能源和安全问题上对美国及北约的依赖,而对欧洲战略自主性的追求有所搁置。进入2023年,德国经济陷入技术性衰退,经济社会挑战依然严峻,加之德国右翼民粹主义势力呈现进一步抬头迹象,给朔尔茨政府的施政带来更多掣肘。德国虽然推出了其历史上首份《国家安全战略》,但是,德国要想实现真正的“时代转折”,在欧洲乃至国际秩序的构建中扮演真正意义上的领导角色,将需要一种更长期的战略思维、一种新的战略文化,需要将文件中的政策宣示转化为实际的行动。

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Abstract:The year 2022 marked a significant milestone in German history as it saw the first full year in office of the first three-party coalition government at the federal level. This coalition is comprised of the SPD,the Greens,and the FDP. As a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the economic sanctions against Russia,the German economy faces serious uncertainty,public satisfaction with the work of the Scholz’s government continue... 展开

Abstract:The year 2022 marked a significant milestone in German history as it saw the first full year in office of the first three-party coalition government at the federal level. This coalition is comprised of the SPD,the Greens,and the FDP. As a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the economic sanctions against Russia,the German economy faces serious uncertainty,public satisfaction with the work of the Scholz’s government continues to decline,and the government’s leadership is increasingly challenged. In the face of the “turning point”(“Zeitenwende”)caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,Germany has in the domestic sphere addressed energy supply bottlenecks and climate issues as well as social issues caused by high energy prices. The result has been a further strengthening of dependence on the US and NATO for energy and security issues,while the pursuit of European strategic autonomy has been put on hold. As Germany enters 2023,further constraints on Scholz’s governance manifest themselves:the economy is in technical recession,economic and social challenges remain daunting,and the rise in right-wing populism continues unabated. Germany has launched its first National Security Strategy,but if it is to achieve a genuine “turning point” and play a truly leading role in the construction of the European and international order,longer-term strategic thinking,a new strategic culture,and the resolve to translate the policy declarations in the Strategy into practical and effective action will be required.

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作者简介

郑春荣:郑春荣,哲学博士,同济大学德国研究中心主任、教授,主要研究领域为德国政治与外交、中德与中欧关系以及中美欧三边关系研究。