2021年德国选民结构变化及其政治影响分析

Abstract:The 2021 German federal parliamentary election has attracted much attention. The election results showed that while the SPD has regained its position as the largest party，its role as a “people’s party” has declined，contrasting with the rise of small and mid-sized parties such as the Greens and the FDP. By analyzing the voter structure of the election，this paper identifies three main features of change：age and generational factors are important influences；the electoral behavior of voters differs from one region to another and the correlation between voters’ occupation and party preferences weakened. The German federal parliament continues its model of six distinct political forces，but changes in the behavior of the electorate have increased uncertainty about the party landscape. In addition，the changing voter structure has led to a change in the structure of the federal parliament，with an increase in the proportion of young，first-time and female members. These changes of the voter structure will continue to influence the party landscape in future federal elections.

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