2018年中东地区的安全形势与趋势

Abstract:The security situation in the Middle East has been negatively developed in 2018. The traditional security risks in the region have risen，and the armed conflicts in the turbulent countries have not improved significantly. The proxy war is still the main form of geopolitical conflicts. The political situations in many countries in North Africa are unstable and difficult to calm down in the short term，and there exists the possibility of inducing serious violent conflicts. Terrorism overflows to “fragile zones” around the traditional turbulent areas，while non-traditional security threats are merging with traditional security risks. The struggle of major powers for regional hegemony has once again become the theme of the geopolitical game in the Middle East，and it has also brought new challenges to the region. The prospects are not optimistic. The United States pursues an extremely utilitarian policy and is apparently acquiescing while contrary-minded with its allies. Due to the U.S’ comprehensive containment strategy toward Iran，some regional issues，such as Iran nuclear issue，Palestine-Israel relations，have been dramatically intensified. The traditional alliances have been partly replaced by short and medium-term interest group among the regional countries，which have become the mainstay of geo-games. The intersection and reconstruction of different interest groups further weaken the stability of regional security structure. The geo-political wrestlings in the Middle East are mostly guided by “zero-sum”，which may hinder the positive development of the regional security situation and have negative impacts on China’s interest in the Middle East and the promotion of “The Belt and Road” initiative.

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