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2018年俄罗斯内政外交的总体特点及未来趋势

作者:孙壮志 出版日期:2019年05月 报告页数:16 页 报告大小: 报告字数:14210 字 所属丛书:俄罗斯黄皮书 所属图书:俄罗斯发展报告(2019) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:对俄罗斯来说,2018年最重要的政治事件是3月的总统大选,普京获胜后开启了第四个总统任期。普京的支持率达到新高,不仅保证其合法执政,更让很多人确信这不会是普京政治生涯的最后六年,他作为俄罗斯“掌舵人”的时间有可能超过30年。维持政权和政局的稳定是俄国内政策的基调,普京没有对政府做出大的调整。为了在重重阻力之下实现经济的较快增长,俄政府采取了一系列措施,加大政府主导经济转型的力度,这也使俄宏观经济政策随着外部环境的不断恶化悄然发生改变,有些是... 展开

文章摘要:对俄罗斯来说,2018年最重要的政治事件是3月的总统大选,普京获胜后开启了第四个总统任期。普京的支持率达到新高,不仅保证其合法执政,更让很多人确信这不会是普京政治生涯的最后六年,他作为俄罗斯“掌舵人”的时间有可能超过30年。维持政权和政局的稳定是俄国内政策的基调,普京没有对政府做出大的调整。为了在重重阻力之下实现经济的较快增长,俄政府采取了一系列措施,加大政府主导经济转型的力度,这也使俄宏观经济政策随着外部环境的不断恶化悄然发生改变,有些是主动的改革,有些则是被动的应对。俄经济上保持了低速增长,但民生领域的问题更为突出,实现普京确定的增长目标难度很大。俄外交上显示出相对强势,在后苏联空间强化影响力。中俄关系继续深化,但俄与西方的关系仍在不断恶化。2019年发展前景依旧不容乐观,保持稳定与应对危机是俄面临的两大艰巨任务。

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Abstract:For Russia, the most important political event in 2018 was the presidential election in March. Putin won the election and started his fourth presidential term. Moreover, his support rate reached a new high, which not only legitimized his ruling, but also convinced many people that this would not be the last six years of Putin's political career. Maintaining political power and political stability was the keywords of Russia's domes... 展开

Abstract:For Russia, the most important political event in 2018 was the presidential election in March. Putin won the election and started his fourth presidential term. Moreover, his support rate reached a new high, which not only legitimized his ruling, but also convinced many people that this would not be the last six years of Putin's political career. Maintaining political power and political stability was the keywords of Russia's domestic policies, so Putin made no major adjustments to the government. In order to achieve rapid economic growth under difficult conditions, the Russian government adopted a series of measures, and increased the government's leading role in economic transformation. This caused Russia's macroeconomic policies to change quietly. Some changes were active reforms, while others were passive responses. The Russian economy maintained a low rate of growth, but the problems in the people's livelihood were more prominent, so it was very difficult to achieve Putin's growth targets. Russia's diplomacy was relative strong which consolidated its influence in the post-Soviet space. China-Russian relations continued to deepen, but relations between Russia and the West were deteriorating. In general, the development prospects in 2019 are still not optimistic. Maintaining stability and coping with the crisis are two arduous tasks for Russia.

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作者简介

孙壮志:孙壮志,博士,中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所所长,研究员。