2017～2018年世界经济形势分析与展望

Abstract:The world economic growth rate rose significantly in 2017 as well as labor market improved. The prices of commodities kept in low-middle band and global inflation increased lightly. International trade increased rapidly，but international investment grew slowly. Global outstanding debt has been rising continuously and international financial markets were accumulating bubbles. There are many challenges facing world economy，which include that the fundamentals of world economic recovery have not been solid，the long-term factors supporting high speed growth of international trade have not been formed，the fiscal policies and monetary policies in the U.S. have negative spillover to the rest of world，the trend of anti-globalization and protectionism becomes strong，global debt overhang is more severe，asset bubbles will burst probably at certain moment. Moreover，geopolitical risks and terrorism may bring negative effects on the stability and development of world economy. It is expected that the PPP-based GDP growth rate of the world economy will be 3.5% in 2018.

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