2020：中东剧变十年的反思和展望

Abstract:Since the upheaval in the Middle East（2010-2020），serious governance crises，development predicaments，security dilemmas，as well as major power competitions，and geopolitical conflicts have been witnessed in the Middle East. The upheaval has not only changed the overall situation of the Middle East，but also profoundly affected its historical process. It has been a major turning point in the changes of the Middle East，and the region has entered an era of “uncertainty” that is more risky and turbulent than ever. On the one hand，avoiding chaos，wishing for stability，solving livelihood problems，and exploring independent development paths have become the core issues facing Middle Eastern countries；on the other hand，slow development pace，sharpened social problems，frequent public protests，and prominent governance problems have been terrible. In particular，the COVID-19 has aggravated economic and social development difficulties of the Middle East countries，and delayed the pace of getting out of the predicament. At present，the vast majority of countries in the Middle East are still in the “progress” of upheavals，wandering in the “long wave” of upheavals in the Middle East. The Middle East，which has just entered the third decade of the 21st century，faces eight major risks：regional conflict risk，political security risk，foreign intervention risk，terrorism risk，ethnic conflict risk，nuclear non-proliferation risk，water dispute risk，and energy （and its transporting routes） security risks. At the same time，the situation in the Middle East presents six major trends：long-term regional transformation and turbulence，frequent intervention by major powers，sharpened geopolitical competition，normalization of popular protest movements，accelerated division of regional countries，and accelerated economic reform，etc.. On the whole，complex crises in the Middle East are on the rise，transformation of the regional countries is difficult，and uncertainties of regional order are increasing. The future development trend of the Middle East is full of greater uncertainties. In the long term，the Middle East countries should explore their independent development paths，improve their governance capabilities，seize the new opportunities of the new technological revolution and jointly build the “Belt and Road” to promote regional stability，cooperation and development，which should be the realistic choice of the Middle East countries，and the hope of development in the Middle East.

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