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印度洋安全环境评估

作者:张家栋 出版日期:2019年09月 报告页数:22 页 报告大小: 报告字数:20684 字 所属丛书:印度洋地区蓝皮书 所属图书:印度洋地区发展报告(2019) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:印度洋地区面临来自传统安全和非传统安全领域的威胁。在传统安全领域,印度洋地区处于美国主导模式之中,但正在向多边平衡模式缓慢转型。美国维持传统霸权地位的努力、印度建立新主导结构的冲动,以及中国等国家维持自身航行自由和经济安全的行为,使印度洋地区安全结构面临强大的压力。但在可以预见的将来,印度洋地区美国主导、多国参与并存的格局不会有显著变化,传统安全格局和秩序仍将是稳定的。在非传统安全领域,印度洋地区的安全状况有明显缓和,但也存在隐忧。恐... 展开

文章摘要:印度洋地区面临来自传统安全和非传统安全领域的威胁。在传统安全领域,印度洋地区处于美国主导模式之中,但正在向多边平衡模式缓慢转型。美国维持传统霸权地位的努力、印度建立新主导结构的冲动,以及中国等国家维持自身航行自由和经济安全的行为,使印度洋地区安全结构面临强大的压力。但在可以预见的将来,印度洋地区美国主导、多国参与并存的格局不会有显著变化,传统安全格局和秩序仍将是稳定的。在非传统安全领域,印度洋地区的安全状况有明显缓和,但也存在隐忧。恐怖主义威胁和海盗活动明显下降,但存在反弹的可能。气候变化和自然灾害对印度洋地区的威胁仍然存在,并且有继续恶化的可能。

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Abstract:The Indian Ocean region faces threats from traditional security and non-traditional security areas. In the traditional security field,the Indian Ocean region is in the US-led model,but is slowly transitioning to a multilateral equilibrium model. The US’s efforts to maintain its traditional hegemonic status,India’s impulse to establish a new dominant structure,and the maintenance of its own freedom of navigation and economic secu... 展开

Abstract:The Indian Ocean region faces threats from traditional security and non-traditional security areas. In the traditional security field,the Indian Ocean region is in the US-led model,but is slowly transitioning to a multilateral equilibrium model. The US’s efforts to maintain its traditional hegemonic status,India’s impulse to establish a new dominant structure,and the maintenance of its own freedom of navigation and economic security by countries such as China have placed strong pressure on the security structure of the Indian Ocean region. However,in the foreseeable future,the pattern of US-led and multi-country participation in the Indian Ocean region will not change significantly,and the traditional security pattern and order will remain stable. In the field of non-traditional security issues,the security situation in the Indian Ocean region has been significantly eased,but there are also hidden concerns. he threat of terrorism and piracy have dropped significantly,but there is a possibility of a rebound. Climate change and natural disasters,threats to the Indian Ocean region still exist and there is a possibility of further deterioration.

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作者简介

张家栋:张家栋,复旦大学南亚研究中心主任,教授。