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民盟治理下的政治经济与中缅“一带一路”建设

作者:刘务 刘佳俊 出版日期:2017年06月 报告页数:25 页 报告大小: 报告字数:23136 字 所属丛书:印度洋地区蓝皮书 所属图书:印度洋地区发展报告(2017) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:民盟执政后,延续吴登盛政府时期对“一带一路”表示支持的态度,但中缅共建“一带一路”一年来进展缓慢。其中最重要的原因是民盟政府的中心任务是民族和解,其他议题如经济发展、民主化等大多围绕民族和解展开,因而与旨在推动经济发展的“一带一路”难以形成战略对接。缅甸高估其在“一带一路”中的地缘重要性也影响了它对“一带一路”的参与。中国评估“一带一路”在缅甸可能遇到的阻力后,降低了短期内在“一带一路”框架下构建“中缅经济走廊”的预期,重点实施南下印... 展开

文章摘要:民盟执政后,延续吴登盛政府时期对“一带一路”表示支持的态度,但中缅共建“一带一路”一年来进展缓慢。其中最重要的原因是民盟政府的中心任务是民族和解,其他议题如经济发展、民主化等大多围绕民族和解展开,因而与旨在推动经济发展的“一带一路”难以形成战略对接。缅甸高估其在“一带一路”中的地缘重要性也影响了它对“一带一路”的参与。中国评估“一带一路”在缅甸可能遇到的阻力后,降低了短期内在“一带一路”框架下构建“中缅经济走廊”的预期,重点实施南下印度洋的“两翼并进”战略,在缅甸西南面推进中巴经济走廊,在其东南面打造湄公河次区域合作升级版,力推澜湄合作机制。若民盟政府继续将短期内难以取得重大突破的民族和解奉为执政的中心任务,中缅就很难在共建“一带一路”上实现战略对接,中缅共建“一带一路”短期内将很难取得重大突破。

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Abstract:After NLD took power,Continuing the position and attitude towards “OBOR” of U Thein Sein government,issuing a statement to support “OBOR” initiative,but it is slow to build “OBOR” in the past year for Myanmar. One of the most important reason is that the first priority of NLD government is on national reconciliation. Other issues such as economic development and democratization are mostly revolves around national reconciliati... 展开

Abstract:After NLD took power,Continuing the position and attitude towards “OBOR” of U Thein Sein government,issuing a statement to support “OBOR” initiative,but it is slow to build “OBOR” in the past year for Myanmar. One of the most important reason is that the first priority of NLD government is on national reconciliation. Other issues such as economic development and democratization are mostly revolves around national reconciliation. As a result,it is difficult to form strategic docking to with the aims of “OBOR” to promote the economic development. After assessing encounter resistance from Myanmar,China reduces expectations of “China-Myanmar Economic Corridor” expectations in the short term under the framework of “OBOR”,and to implement the two-wing strategy to south Indian Ocean in a circuitous route to push China-Pakistan economic corridor and BCIM from Southwest,upgrading GMC from Southeast of Myanmar,Vigorously promoting Lancang-Mekong Cooperation. If the NLD continues to push national reconciliation as the first task of ruling that it is difficult to achieve a major breakthrough,to realize strategic docking for China and Myanmar on “OBOR” construction and to get great breakthrough on building “OBOR”.

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作者简介

刘务:刘务,云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心副教授,博士。

刘佳俊:刘佳俊,云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心2015级硕士研究生。