2016年国际金融形势回顾与展望

Abstract:The global economic recovery was still weak in 2015-16，with the divergence of monetary policies among major countries. The US raised its interest rate at the end of 2015，but the further rise has been delayed again and again. By contrast，Japan and some European countries adopted negative interest rates in 2016，which exerted a significant impact on the global financial market. However，such policy changes did not have a notable effect upon the real economy. As a result，the risk preference of international investors declined and the financial fragility of emerging economies rises. It is the most important feature for the global bond market in 2016 that the yield of long term government bonds of Japan and some European countries goes negative. The global stock market performed well in 2016 because of extreme monetary policy and the rise of commodity prices. The appreciation of US dollar is the mainstream in the global foreign exchange market in 2016. How to prevent a new financial crisis is a key challenge facing the world in 2017.

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