全球贸易低速增长之谜

Abstract:The 2008 global financial crisis has a serious shock on global trade：there is great trade collapse in 2009，and the growth rates of global trade are only about 3% in recent three years. Besides，the reason of this trade shock is complex. Therefore，we can call this phenomenon “the myth of global trade slowdown”. Quantitative analysis reveals that，the structural factors make a little more contributions to global trade slowdown than demand factor. A further study reveals that structural factors include the change of global commodity composition，the weak bonus of China’s integration into world economy，global value chains，and trade protection. All these structural factors affect the growth rate of trade through income elasticity of trade. This paper forecasts that，the grow rate of global trade will be about 4% in the next few years，still lower than the growth rate before global financial crisis. The global trade slowdown is an important opportunity for China’s transformation and upgrading of trade structure.

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