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大选与经济政策调整

作者:徐秀军 出版日期:2013年01月 报告页数:18 页 报告大小: 报告字数:16385 字 所属丛书:世界经济黄皮书 所属图书:2013年世界经济形势分析与预测 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:在2012年的世界经济大事中,选举是最重要的主题之一。据初步统计,2012年全球举行政府换届选举的国家和地区有50余个,约占世界国家和地区总数的1/4,占全球GDP(按购买力平价)比重超过50%。在当前世界经济增长放缓、发达经济体深陷债务危机的背景下,这些国家,尤其是美国、法国和俄罗斯在大选后都对经济政策进行了相应调整。尽管短期内奥巴马政府将继续实施刺激政策促进经济增长,但长期来看,将逐步转变为通过削减开支并上调针对富人的税率来削减政府赤字。法国总统奥朗... 展开

文章摘要:在2012年的世界经济大事中,选举是最重要的主题之一。据初步统计,2012年全球举行政府换届选举的国家和地区有50余个,约占世界国家和地区总数的1/4,占全球GDP(按购买力平价)比重超过50%。在当前世界经济增长放缓、发达经济体深陷债务危机的背景下,这些国家,尤其是美国、法国和俄罗斯在大选后都对经济政策进行了相应调整。尽管短期内奥巴马政府将继续实施刺激政策促进经济增长,但长期来看,将逐步转变为通过削减开支并上调针对富人的税率来削减政府赤字。法国总统奥朗德对内推出了税制改革、产业结构调整、严格监管金融行业和调整能源结构等多个领域的经济改革计划,对欧政策上提出了对“财政契约”起补充作用的“增长契约”。俄罗斯总统普京当选后确定了优先发展议题并出台了一系列新的措施,全面打造多元“新经济”。这些调整和变化将影响相关国家和世界经济的未来走向。2013年德国大选后欧洲紧缩财政政策以及财政一体化的推行力度也将是影响欧元区经济以及欧洲一体化的重要影响因素。

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Abstract:The general election is one of the most important themes among major world economic events in 2012. According to preliminary statistics, there are more than 50 countries and regions holding the government's general election this year, accounting for about a quarter of the total number of countries and regions in the world, and more than 50% of the global GDP (purchasing power parity). In the context of high debt and sluggish growth, t... 展开

Abstract:The general election is one of the most important themes among major world economic events in 2012. According to preliminary statistics, there are more than 50 countries and regions holding the government's general election this year, accounting for about a quarter of the total number of countries and regions in the world, and more than 50% of the global GDP (purchasing power parity). In the context of high debt and sluggish growth, the economic policies will be accordingly adjusted after the elections of these countries, especially the United States, France, and Russia. The Obama Administration will continue to implement stimulus policies to promote economic growth over a short period, but in the long run it will gradually cut the government deficits through spending reduction and tax increase for the rich. French President Franois Hollande launched various domestic economic reform programs such as tax reforms, industrial restructuring, the strict supervision of the financial industries and the energy structures adjustment, and supported the Stability and Growth Pact as a complement to the Fiscal Compact for the European Union. The president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin selected development priorities and put forward a series of new measures to construct a comprehensive "new economy". These adjustments and changes will affect the prospects for economic development of the relevant countries and the whole world. German general election in 2013 will also be one of the important factors of the euro-zone economy and European integration.

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作者简介

徐秀军:中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员。