新兴市场经济体面临短期国际资本流动的易变性分析

Abstract:In the past decade, the volatility of international capital flows has been exacerbating, and the volatility of short-term capital flow has been significantly higher than that of mid or long-term capital flow. The panel data regression on seven emerging market economies between 2005 and 2011 shows that, both pushing factors and pulling factors played important roles in the short-term capital flows. The major pushing factors include US interest rate, US GPD, and VIX index, and the major pulling factors include stock price index, the change of the exchange rate between domestic currency against USD, and the domestic interest rate. To cope with the impacts of volatile international capital flows, several policy measures should be considered. First, the emerging market economies should fully utilize the toolkit which includes macro-economic policies, macro-prudential regulations and the capital account control. Second, the developed countries should control the negative externalities of their domestic monetary policies. Third, the policy coordination between source countries and recipient countries should be strengthened.

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