2012～2013年世界经济形势分析与展望

Abstract:The world economy remains sluggish in 2012. While the United States and Japan contributed to slow economic growth, most other developed economies, especially the euro-zone, are more serious causes for concern. At the same time, they faced serious economic and social problems such as unemployment, high debt, and very little room for conventional monetary policy and fiscal policy. It becomes evident that the major developed economies will slide into Japanese-style stagnation. Due to a sharp decline of external demand and domestic economic adjustment, some big emerging markets and developing economies also experienced economic slow down. The situation was accompanied by slow global trade growth and frequent trade disputes, gradually decreased commodity prices, unnatural rise of the stock market caused by unconventional policies, and limited progress in global governance and regional integration. The year 2012 is also characterized by general election politics which had great impacts on the global economy. In 2013, the world economy will be influenced by the factors such as the US "fiscal cliff", the unsolved European sovereign debt crisis, excess liquidity, trade protectionism, regional security, and other uncertainties. Therefore, the moderate and slow growth of the global economy will become a new normal state.

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