埃及政权变更的前因后果

Abstract:The 2011 Egypt political turmoil took up on 25 January 2011,it was the largest civil resistance movement in decades,which featured a series of demonstrations and marches. The turmoil can be divided into two stages,in the first stage,protesters demanded the overthrow of the regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and in the second stage,protesters demanded the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces transfer political power to the democratically elected governments as soon as possible. The immediate cause of 2011 Egypt political turmoil was the price rising in international grain market since the end of 2010. However,there were other economical,political and social factors make the regime of Egypt is vulnerable under the high grain prices. Economically,it is the low self-sufficient rate of grains make the food prices of Egypt sensitive to the international market and the less developed manufacturing industry make the ordinary Egypt family poor and sensitive to the food price volatility;politically,it is widespread corruption weakened the ruling basis of the ruling group and make the ordinary Egypt people tend to blame the government for all their sufferings,including the rises of food prices;and socially,it is the massive unemployed young people and the situation of most disadvantaged people living in the slum provide the conveniences for opposition parties convening massive anti-government demonstrations. Since the food prices may come into a high-price balance in the international market. No matter what kind of political system be erected after the turmoil,if Egypt still fails to promote the profound economic reform,speed up the development of manufacturing industry,turn the"demographic dividend"into productivity,it will be very difficult for the ruling group gaining the support of Egypt people.

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