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中亚五国2013年政治经济形势评析

作者:孙壮志 出版日期:2014年09月 报告页数:9 页 报告大小: 报告字数:7867 字 所属丛书:中亚黄皮书 所属图书:中亚国家发展报告(2014)

文章摘要

  

中亚五国形势总体上比较平稳,政局基本稳定,塔吉克斯坦、土库曼斯坦举行的大选波澜不惊;哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦为政权顺利交接周密布局;极端势力对政局稳定的挑战受到较有效的抑制。经济状况较好,达到甚至超过预期水平,但发展差距进一步拉大,经济结构调整的任务难以完成,“影子经济”比重较大,外债负担沉重。中亚国家参与地区经济一体化和国际经济体系都遇到许多现实的困难。未来政治领域的不确定因素会增多,安全稳定可能受到新的冲击。经济将会延续增长的势头,但实际上经济增长的成果没有真正惠及普通民众,发展的过程也必定会伴随尖锐的社会矛盾,有的国家有发生较大规模动荡的现实危险。

Abstract

  

The situation of the five Central Asian countries in 2013 remained relatively stable,especially in the political field. The presidential elections in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan went smooth,sophisticated arrangements were being made for smooth transfer of government in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,and the challenge of extremist forces were under effective control. The economy of Central Asia was satisfactory,reaching or went beyond the level previously expected. Problems still remained,such as the widening gap in development,difficulty in accomplishing economic tasks of structural adjustment,the big proportion of shadow economy,and the heavy burdens of foreign debt. Central Asian countries are still faced with many practical obstacles in participating in regional economic integration and world economic system. Looking into the future,uncertain factors in the political field will still be on the rise,bringing new challenges to security and stability. Although the economy will keep the current momentum of growth,since it can not bring benefit to the common people,the process of development will still be accompanied by acute social problems,and the real danger of relatively large-scale unrest will be difficult to avoid in some countries.

作者简介

孙壮志:孙壮志,中国社会科学院上海合作组织研究中心秘书长、研究员。