2023~2024年俄罗斯经济：制裁与韧性

Abstract:Affected by factors such as stable domestic consumption demand，growth in government defense spending，high energy and food prices，relatively successful adjustments in oil export destinations，and timely fiscal and monetary policy adjustments，the Russian economy has shown strong resilience. In 2022，it fell by 2.1%，and in the first and second quarters of 2023，it grew by -2.3% and 3.6% respectively，significantly better than expectations. However，it faces challenges such as the depreciation of the ruble，a rebound in inflation rates，and an increase in fiscal deficits. As for the future of Russia’s economy，there are both positive factors such as strong economic resilience，stable consumer demand，potential growth in energy and food exports，and increases in government spending and manufacturing investment，but also many negative factors such as the crowding out of private investment by defense spending，high inflation rates，exchange rate fluctuations in the ruble，Western sanctions limiting access to technology and equipment，and labor shortages. We predict that the Russian economy will likely grow by around 2.0% in 2023 and by around 1.5% in 2024.

收起