Abstract:In the fiscal year of 2022-2023，the Indian economy maintained a recovery trend，with a real GDP growth rate of 7.2%，making it one of the fastest growing emerging economies. In the first eight months of 2023，India’s inflation rate decreased by 1 percentage point year-on-year，but in the past 12 months，it has still exceeded the upper limit set by Indian central bank in 6 months. The unemployment rate in India in September was 7.1%，a record low since September 2022. The Indian Rupee’s real effective exchange rate has significantly rebounded，but has slightly depreciated relative to the US dollar. The Indian stock market continues its uptrend，with the Sensex index rising to 67838.63 on September 15th，reaching a record high. Fiscal expenditure continues to expand，with a significant increase in capital expenditure. The scale of central government debt is gradually expanding，and the fiscal deficit rate is relatively high. The pace of monetary policy tightening in India has significantly slowed down. The external factors that affect India’s economic prospects include global economic recovery，international commodity prices such as crude oil and food，global trade and demand，geopolitical situation，and climate change；The internal factors include final consumer spending，government capital expenditure and private investment，service industry activity，and change of inflationary pressure and so on. Taking all factors into account，this report expects India’s real GDP growth rate to be around 6.4% in FY2023-2024，and is expected to remain around 6.4% in FY2024-2025.
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