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塞内加尔:持续稳定发展面临多重考验

作者:孟瑾 出版日期:2023年07月 报告页数:16 页 报告大小: 报告字数:16829 字 所属丛书:非洲黄皮书 所属图书:非洲发展报告No.25(2022~2023) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2022年以来,塞内加尔总体保持稳定,但政治风险呈上升趋势,经济社会发展持续承压,安全形势亦不容乐观。政治方面,反对党通过缔结政治联盟的方式在地方选举、立法选举中缩小了与执政联盟的差距,竞争力显著增强。面对2024年总统大选压力,塞内加尔政治生态对抗性日益突出,街头抗议频次有所上升。经济社会方面,后疫情时代塞内加尔宏观经济回温缓慢,但通货膨胀率居高不下,生活成本、失业率持续攀升等问题造成居民生活水平难以改善,公共事件频发导致民众对政府的信任度... 展开

文章摘要:2022年以来,塞内加尔总体保持稳定,但政治风险呈上升趋势,经济社会发展持续承压,安全形势亦不容乐观。政治方面,反对党通过缔结政治联盟的方式在地方选举、立法选举中缩小了与执政联盟的差距,竞争力显著增强。面对2024年总统大选压力,塞内加尔政治生态对抗性日益突出,街头抗议频次有所上升。经济社会方面,后疫情时代塞内加尔宏观经济回温缓慢,但通货膨胀率居高不下,生活成本、失业率持续攀升等问题造成居民生活水平难以改善,公共事件频发导致民众对政府的信任度下降。安全方面,塞内加尔政府通过军事行动削弱了“卡萨芒斯民主力量运动”的存在,但双方政治和谈难有实质性进展。塞内加尔边境还面临恐怖主义、跨国非法贸易等安全威胁。未来,萨勒领导下的塞内加尔政府仍将面临多重考验。

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Abstract:Since 2022,Senegal has remained generally stable,but political risks have been on the rise,economic and social development has continued to come under pressure,and the security situation is not optimistic. In terms of politics,the opposition party has narrowed the gap with the ruling party alliance in local elections and legislative elections by forming a political alliance,and its competitiveness has increased significantly. Fa... 展开

Abstract:Since 2022,Senegal has remained generally stable,but political risks have been on the rise,economic and social development has continued to come under pressure,and the security situation is not optimistic. In terms of politics,the opposition party has narrowed the gap with the ruling party alliance in local elections and legislative elections by forming a political alliance,and its competitiveness has increased significantly. Facing the pressure of the 2024 presidential election,political situation in Senegal has become increasingly confrontational,and the frequency of street protests has increased. In terms of economy,Senegal’s macro-economy recovers slowly in the post-epidemic era,but the inflation remains high,residents’ living costs and unemployment rate continue to rise,making it difficult to improve people’s living standards. The frequency of public incidents has led to a decline in the public’s trust in the government. In terms of security,the Senegalese government has greatly weakened the existence of the “Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance” through military operations,but the peace agreement between the two sides are still difficult to make progress. The Senegalese border still faces security threats such as terrorism and cross-border illicit trade. In the coming year,the Senegalese government under Sall’s leadership will still face multiple tests.

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作者简介

孟瑾:孟瑾,中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所(中国非洲研究院)助理研究员,主要研究领域为西非地区政治发展、冲突管理。