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现阶段缅甸的政治、经济与外交形势分析

作者:刘务 李琦 出版日期:2023年04月 报告页数:27 页 报告大小: 报告字数:26114 字 所属丛书:印度洋地区蓝皮书 所属图书:印度洋地区发展报告(2022) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2021年2月1日缅甸军人以全国民主同盟在2020年大选中舞弊为由,拘捕全国民主同盟领导人并接管政权。缅甸政局再次剧烈动荡。缅甸军人为控制局势,采取坐实全国民主同盟大选舞弊、刑事指控全国民主同盟领导人等措施竭力打压全国民主同盟势力;对少数民族地方武装妥协和拉拢,避免少数民族地方武装与全国民主同盟结成反缅甸军人的“统一战线”;为应对欧美国家的制裁,努力维持与邻国、大国关系来缓解外交压力。缅甸军人接管政权后建立起来的国家管理委员会也采取一些措施发展... 展开

文章摘要:2021年2月1日缅甸军人以全国民主同盟在2020年大选中舞弊为由,拘捕全国民主同盟领导人并接管政权。缅甸政局再次剧烈动荡。缅甸军人为控制局势,采取坐实全国民主同盟大选舞弊、刑事指控全国民主同盟领导人等措施竭力打压全国民主同盟势力;对少数民族地方武装妥协和拉拢,避免少数民族地方武装与全国民主同盟结成反缅甸军人的“统一战线”;为应对欧美国家的制裁,努力维持与邻国、大国关系来缓解外交压力。缅甸军人接管政权后建立起来的国家管理委员会也采取一些措施发展经济,防控新冠肺炎疫情,但因其重心不在社会治理和民生,故成效不彰。当前缅甸军人仍能掌控政局,但全国民主同盟的反抗、少数民族地方武装要求更多自治权、欧美国家不断加大的制裁等对缅甸军人的压力将长期存在。

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Abstract:On February 1,2021,Myanmar military arrested the leader of the National League for Democracy(NLD)and took over power on the grounds of fraud in the NLD’s 2020 election. The political situation in Myanmar is once again in turmoil. In order to control the situation,Myanmar military have taken measures to suppress the NLD by establishing the fraudulent NLD election and accusing the NLD leaders. In response to the sanctions imposed ... 展开

Abstract:On February 1,2021,Myanmar military arrested the leader of the National League for Democracy(NLD)and took over power on the grounds of fraud in the NLD’s 2020 election. The political situation in Myanmar is once again in turmoil. In order to control the situation,Myanmar military have taken measures to suppress the NLD by establishing the fraudulent NLD election and accusing the NLD leaders. In response to the sanctions imposed by European and American countries,Myanmar has been trying to maintain relations with neighboring countries and major powers to ease diplomatic pressure. The State Administration Council,which was established after the military took over power,has taken some measures to develop the economy and prevent and control the COVID-19 epidemic,but it has not been effective because its focus is not on social governance and people’s livelihoods. The military is still in control of the political situation,but there will continue to be under pressure on the military from the NLD,local ethnic armed groups demanding more autonomy,and increasing sanctions from Europe and the United States.

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作者简介

刘务:刘务,云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心教授。

李琦:李琦,云南大学滇池学院助教。