发达经济体货币紧缩对全球经济的影响（2022～2023）

Abstract:In 2022，inflation remains high in major developed economies and central banks in major economies such as the Federal Reserve and the ECB accelerate the withdrawal of quantitative easing and sharp interest rate hikes to curb rising inflation. The dampening effect of sharp monetary tightening on supply-driven inflation remains to be seen，but may lead to major developed economies face the risk of recession，financial risk also rose. Monetary tightening in developed economies spills over to other economies around the world through trade，commodity and capital flow channels，leading to a decline in global demand，dollar appreciation，local currency depreciation，a passive rise in domestic financing costs，asset price shocks，and the possibility of a currency crisis or debt crisis in economies with high financial vulnerability. It is worth noting that the major European economies during the Fed and the ECB rate hike also suffered from the Ukrainian crisis，the energy crisis and other multiple shocks，exchange rates and risk premium shocks are far more than the last rate hike. The European economy has been hit harder than the last rate hike cycle.

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