2021~2022年全球能源局势与中国能源发展

Abstract:With the acceleration of vaccination against COVID-19，the strong rebound in economic growth and oil demand，the superimposed influence of geopolitical factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine，the world crude oil price fluctuated for many periods in 2021. As the structural imbalance between supply and demand in the regional natural gas market，the global coal-fired power generation hit a new high，the growth rate of renewable energy decreased，and various factors promoted the growth of global power demand by more than 6%. In 2022，the zero carbon campaign further reduced investment in oil development，the conflict between Russia and Ukraine pushed up the global natural gas price，the coal demand and renewable energy installed capacity reached a new record，and the growth rate of global power demand slowed down. In 2021，the contradiction between supply and demand of coal in China continued to increase，and ensuring supply and stabilizing prices promoted the return of coal prices to a reasonable range，but the LNG import price was still low. Renewable energy power generation increased steadily，and the trend of green and low-carbon power production was significant. In the future，China’s imported pipeline gas will mainly come from Russia. China’s coal power installation is expected to peak before 2030，and the opportunity of power informatization market reappears. It is suggested that China form a gas competition market，promote the evolution，innovation and multiple iteration of power system，power grid structure and energy system，build a digital energy trading center，and promote the smooth achievement of the zero carbon goal.

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