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南亚地缘政治视角下2020年印度邻国外交观察与分析

作者:冯传禄 出版日期:2021年12月 报告页数:25 页 报告大小: 报告字数:33437 字 所属丛书:印度洋地区蓝皮书 所属图书:印度洋地区发展报告(2021) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:南亚地区维度的对外关系,构成印度对外关系的重要维度、核心关切。2020年,印度的邻国关系总体大幅波动,不同双边关系有起有落,而尤其受关注的是2020年内印度同时与巴、中、尼三个邻国爆发边界冲突;不过,莫迪政府在疫情外交、南盟与环印联盟等多边舞台上依然长袖善舞。与此同时,莫迪政府对南亚小国的“邻国优先”政策的手段和方式有所调整,相关合作项目推进缓慢,但“软实力”外交积极,“画饼式”倡议增多,本土保守主义在印度国内明显上升。此外,更为值得重视的变... 展开

文章摘要:南亚地区维度的对外关系,构成印度对外关系的重要维度、核心关切。2020年,印度的邻国关系总体大幅波动,不同双边关系有起有落,而尤其受关注的是2020年内印度同时与巴、中、尼三个邻国爆发边界冲突;不过,莫迪政府在疫情外交、南盟与环印联盟等多边舞台上依然长袖善舞。与此同时,莫迪政府对南亚小国的“邻国优先”政策的手段和方式有所调整,相关合作项目推进缓慢,但“软实力”外交积极,“画饼式”倡议增多,本土保守主义在印度国内明显上升。此外,更为值得重视的变化还在于:一方面印度对华政策、对巴政策更趋强硬,甚至印度基于力量制衡考虑,在一些南亚事务、印度洋事务上不惜主动引入美国因素,而不再固守所谓“门罗主义”;另一方面,美国、俄罗斯、欧洲国家出于不同动机,对印度的南亚政策表现出足够“宽容”,这导致的结果是,除了中印关系紧张外,印度认为国际处境并非对其更加不利,反而更加有利。

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Abstract:The dimension of external relations in South Asia is the most important dimension and core concern of India’s foreign relations. In 2020,India’s neighboring relations fluctuated greatly,and different bilateral relations had ups and downs,especially when border conflicts broke out between India and Pakistan,China and Nepal at the same time in 2020. Modi is still good at dancing in the multilateral arena,such as epidemic diplomac... 展开

Abstract:The dimension of external relations in South Asia is the most important dimension and core concern of India’s foreign relations. In 2020,India’s neighboring relations fluctuated greatly,and different bilateral relations had ups and downs,especially when border conflicts broke out between India and Pakistan,China and Nepal at the same time in 2020. Modi is still good at dancing in the multilateral arena,such as epidemic diplomacy,SAARC and the Indian Ocean Union. At the same time,the means and methods of its “neighbor first” policy towards small countries in South Asia have been adjusted,the progress of relevant cooperation projects has been slow but the diplomacy of “soft power” has been active,the number of “pie-drawing” initiatives has increased,and local conservatism has increased significantly. A more noteworthy change is that India’s policy toward China and Pakistan has become tougher,and even based on the consideration of power checks and balances,India does not hesitate to introduce American factors into some South Asian and Indian Ocean affairs. Instead of sticking to the so-called “Monroe Doctrine”. On the other hand,the United States,Russia,and European countries,for different motives,have shown greater “tolerance” towards India’s South Asia policy,which leads to the fact that apart from the tense relations between China and India,India believes that its international situation is not more disadvantageous,but more advantageous.

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作者简介

冯传禄:冯传禄,云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心副教授、硕士生导师。