疫情防控常态化下的全球经济展望（2021~2022）

Abstract:In the post-epidemic era，the global economy has been suffering from continuous negative supply shocks. On the one hand，combined with the impact of loose monetary policy，the world faces a certain degree of stagflation risk. On the other hand，under the impact of the pandemic，countries have implemented loose fiscal policies，which has resulted in a high stock of global sovereign debt both in absolute and relative terms. In this context，stagflation risk and debt risk coexist. This will be an important challenge for the global economy in the post-COVID-19 era. This paper believes that in the benchmark case，the overall risk of stagflation and debt crisis pressure are expected to ease. But in extreme cases，stagflation pressures could also trigger a regional or even broader debt crisis. In this regard，China should stick to its own macroeconomic policy framework and actively strengthen international cooperation in the fields of health and finance.

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