2021年福建省碳中和分析报告

Abstract:This report uses the STIRPAT model，and scenario analysis to forecast the trends of carbon emissions of Fujian in the middle and long termand deploy the emission reduction measures after reaching the carbon peak in advance. By constructing the scenarios of baseline，accelerating transformation，and deep optimization，the forecast of carbon footprint was extended to 2070. The result shows that，in the middle and long term，carbon emissions of Fujian will experience three stages，namely rapid decline，slow decline and gradually reaching the plateau phases. In the scenarios of baseline，accelerated transformation and deep optimization，the carbon emissions in Fujian are expected to reach the plateau stage around 2060，2058 and 2054 respectively，with an emission of about 50 million tons per year. Further analyzing the development trend of carbon removal capacity in the middle and long term，it is estimated that Fujian will achieve carbon neutrality in 2063，2057 and 2054 respectively in the three scenarios considering only forestry carbon sinks and CCUS carbon removal technology. Taking the ocean carbon sinks and soil carbon sinks into consideration，the carbon neutrality time in the three scenarios will be advanced to 2057，2053 and 2049，respectively. Hence，Fujian needs to take more measures to reduce carbon emissions and increase carbon sinks，and fully tap the carbon sink resources in the next stage to ensure the goal of carbon neutrality can be achieved as scheduled.

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