2020～2021年俄罗斯经济：大幅萎缩

Abstract:The outbreak and rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic，combined with drastic fluctuations in international oil prices，has made Russia’s economy worse. After experiencing a decline in the first quarter of 2020，Russia’s economic growth rate fell precipitously in the second quarter，with a year-on-year increase of -8.0%. The trend of the Purchasing Managers’ Index（PMI）shows that the Russian economy has begun to recover after experiencing a sharp contraction. The inflation rate（CPI）has risen steadily on the whole；the Producer Price Index（PPI）has shown a trend of first declining and then rising. The unemployment rate continues to rise，and the number of employed people in economic activities has also declined significantly. The development and response effect of the COVID-19 pandemic，the trend of international oil prices，the intensity of the game among major powers，and changes in geopolitical risks will all have important impacts on the recovery process of the Russian economy. Looking ahead，there are still great uncertainties in Russia’s economic growth prospects. It is expected to shrink sharply in 2020，and it is likely to rebound in 2021.

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