2020年中国新型基础设施建设对重点行业碳排放的影响评估

Abstract:The construction of new infrastructure is one of the main measures to promote high-quality economic development in China under the new situation. At the present stage，the investment demand has great potential，which promotes technological progress，while driving the growth of energy consumption. This study makes a brief predictive analysis of the investment scale of new infrastructure construction，the emission reduction effect from the perspective of technological innovation and the effect of increasing consumption under the demand-driven perspective，and their impact on the carbon emissions peaking of key industries. According to preliminary estimates，new infrastructure construction will drive 9.96-16.37￥ trillion of investment，which will bring significant emission reduction effects by energy efficiency improvement，industrial structure optimization and replacement of the original mode of production and consumption，while the use of steel and cement in the construction process，power consumption in the operating process and new demand from consumption stimulating will also have significant impact on consumption increase. In the short term，considering only direct effects，the construction of new infrastructure will increase CO2 emissions by 1.83 billion tons，while taking indirect effects into account，it will reduce CO2 emissions by 830 million tons. In the long run，new infrastructure will give full play to the emission reduction effect of intelligent upgrading and transformation of industries and green elements. By strengthening the green orientation，reasonably guiding capital flow，introducing supportive policies and implementing green incentive plans，new infrastructure can help achieve high-quality green and low-carbon development.