自民党总裁选举及日本政治形势分析

Abstract:The election of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party in 2018 is the first election held after the reform of the party’s presidential election system. The new electoral system pays more attention to the voice of local grassroots party members. The current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has re-elected for three terms. Abe maintains an absolute advantage in the competition of members of the National Assembly，but faces a strong challenge in the competition of party members. In essence，this presidential election is a vote of confidence in the Abe cabinet. Although there is a higher proportion of “anti-Abe” votes among ordinary party members，it is still difficult to shake Abe’s position as the “one strong” in the Liberal Democratic Party. Japanese party politics still maintains a “one strength and many weak” pattern. In 2018，the opposition party went on the road of reorganization. The merger between the DPP and the Hope Party failed to successfully integrate a relatively strong first opposition party. The first and second opposition parties，whether it is the Constitutional Democratic Party and the Hope Party，or the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party，have little gap between the two parties and the two parties. The opposition party is still difficult to get rid of the “weak” pattern and cannot form effective competitive pressures and checks and balances against the strong LDP.

收起