中日经济发展与国际贸易的因果关系研究

Abstract:Unidirectional measuring and statistical approaches based on Granger’s non-causality can explain the causal relationship among variables in a unstable time series. The article，adopting unidirectional measuring and statistical approaches based on the economic model of variables in a unstable time series，explore the causal relationship in Sino-Japanese trade ties and economic development since 1994. The practical analysis indicates that there is a unidirectional causality between the international trade and gross domestic production（GDP），in which the former has impact on the later but the later has no impact on the former. The impact of Japan’s international trade on the economic development of its own is larger than that of China’s international trade on China’s economic development，and the impact of Sino-Japanese trade on Japan’s GDP is larger than the impact on China’s GDP.

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