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日本第48届众议院选举及政局走向分析

作者:张伯玉 出版日期:2018年04月 报告页数:15 页 报告大小: 报告字数:14867 字 所属丛书:日本蓝皮书 所属图书:日本研究报告(2018) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:第48届大选后,从众议院朝野政治势力分布来看,日本政治继续维持“一强多弱”的格局。自民党单独控制众议院绝对稳定多数以上议席,继续保持“一强”优势地位;自公执政联盟继续控制众议院2/3以上议席。在野党“多弱”格局进一步强化,呈“更多”“更弱”态势,在野党控制的议席合计不足1/3。大选公示前的最大在野党民进党众议院势力分裂,一分为三;立宪民主党成为日本战后政治史上势力最小的最大在野党,朝野两大政党议席差距巨大。安倍抓住有利时机并以“朝鲜局势紧张”... 展开

文章摘要:第48届大选后,从众议院朝野政治势力分布来看,日本政治继续维持“一强多弱”的格局。自民党单独控制众议院绝对稳定多数以上议席,继续保持“一强”优势地位;自公执政联盟继续控制众议院2/3以上议席。在野党“多弱”格局进一步强化,呈“更多”“更弱”态势,在野党控制的议席合计不足1/3。大选公示前的最大在野党民进党众议院势力分裂,一分为三;立宪民主党成为日本战后政治史上势力最小的最大在野党,朝野两大政党议席差距巨大。安倍抓住有利时机并以“朝鲜局势紧张”、日本面临“国难”为“大义名分”解散众议院,是自民党制胜的关键。安倍内阁一度有所松动的执政基础被重新加固,2018年9月总裁选举安倍三选连任胜券在握,但年内国会提出修宪动议难度不小。第48回総選挙による与野党の議席数からみると、日本政治における「一強多弱」構造は相変わらず継続している。自民党単独で絶対安定多数の議席を得て、「一強」優位を維持し、自公両与党で三分の二の議席を獲得している。野党側には、「多弱」構図がさらに強化されて、「より多く」「より弱く」なり、議席の数が三分の一に足りない。公示前に第一野党だった民進党は、衆議院議員が三分裂してしまい、

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Abstract:After the 48th election of House of Representatives,the dominance of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party(LDP)with weak opposition parties remains in Japan’s political configuration. The LDP-Komeito coalition has taken over two-thirds of seats of the House of Representatives,and the power of opposition parties has been further weakened with less than one-third of seats of the House of Representatives. Before the election,the then l... 展开

Abstract:After the 48th election of House of Representatives,the dominance of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party(LDP)with weak opposition parties remains in Japan’s political configuration. The LDP-Komeito coalition has taken over two-thirds of seats of the House of Representatives,and the power of opposition parties has been further weakened with less than one-third of seats of the House of Representatives. Before the election,the then leading opposition party,Japan’s Democratic and Progressive Party,broke into three parities,and the newly-found Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan becomes the smallest leading opposition party in Japan’s postwar era. In the name of protecting Japan under the “crisis” in the context of the Korean nuclear issue,Abe has taken advantage of his sudden dissolution of the Diet and reconsolidated his political foundation throughout wining the election. Abe will probably win the election of president of LDP in September 2018,however,it remains difficult for the ruling parties to propose for the legislation revision of Japan’s constitution in Japan’s Diet in 2018.

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作者简介

张伯玉:张伯玉,法学博士,中国社会科学院日本研究所政治研究室副主任、研究员,研究方向为日本政治。

張伯玉:暂无简介