我国农村金融发展对农村消费影响的非线性效应分析

Abstract:In this paper，based on the threshold regression model and quantile regression model，we analysis the nonlinear relationship between rural financial development and rural consumption from two perspectives-the depth and width of rural finance. The results show that the correlation rate of rural finance in China is high，but the conversion efficiency is low，which is not conducive to the consumption growth of rural residents；When the consumption is in a different growth rate，the financial services have different mechanisms of action. Long-term deposits and short-term loans promote consumption by enhancing the income effect of residents；Insurance has a substitution effect on consumption，but this substitution effect is gradually weakened with the increase of the lag periods. We believe if we want to promote the growth of consumption by the development of rural finance，we should be targeted to reduce precautionary savings of residents，duly relax credit standards，optimize the rural financial environment and other aspects，so the potential of rural residents’ consumption can be released.

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