2016年大选：美国内政外交风向标

Abstract:2016 United States elections have wind-vane implications for U.S. domestic and foreign policy in the next four years. With the U.S. public resentment such as dissatisfaction，anxiety，anger and even fear against the current political，economic and social situation and international environment，both parties are clearly showing the split tendency，and so-called “anti-establishment” candidates become unexpectedly major factor during the campaigns. Especially on the Republican side，the so-called “Trump phenomenon” is more “nativism” and “anti-intellectualism” extreme tendency to respond to the demands of the U.S. public. As an open presidential election，2016 elections are fraught with uncertainty. Base on the estimated distribution of the states’ electoral colleges and the theories of “historical cycle”，“party realignment” and “sectionalism”，Democrats has slightly more advantage in the presidential election. Meanwhile，Republicans are more likely to continue the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives，but face greater pressure to maintain the majority in the U.S. Senate. The China-related campaign by the candidates from both two parties during the 2016 U.S. Elections reflects the worsen China bashing on the dimension of issue ownship and issue framing. The Sino-US relations after the election is also very likely to face an inevitable adjustment and test.

收起