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2021年阿富汗“后美国时代”的局势走向

作者:王震 出版日期:2023年05月 报告页数:19 页 报告大小: 报告字数:21319 字 所属丛书:阿拉伯黄皮书 所属图书:阿拉伯发展报告(2022) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2021年8月美军从阿富汗撤离无疑是“9·11”事件以来全球反恐战争的里程碑事件。它不仅意味着美国全球反恐战争和阿富汗战略的重大调整,还意味着塔利班重新掌权后的阿富汗进入“后美国时代”或“后美军时代”,过去20年来全球反恐战争及其在中亚地区形成的地缘政治格局随之发生改变。塔利班重新掌权后,不少国家基于历史惯性、文化偏见、对外政策及国内政治掣肘等因素,对塔利班在阿富汗执政前景心存疑虑。尽管当前阿富汗在政治、经济、外交和安全等方面面临一系列困难,但... 展开

文章摘要:2021年8月美军从阿富汗撤离无疑是“9·11”事件以来全球反恐战争的里程碑事件。它不仅意味着美国全球反恐战争和阿富汗战略的重大调整,还意味着塔利班重新掌权后的阿富汗进入“后美国时代”或“后美军时代”,过去20年来全球反恐战争及其在中亚地区形成的地缘政治格局随之发生改变。塔利班重新掌权后,不少国家基于历史惯性、文化偏见、对外政策及国内政治掣肘等因素,对塔利班在阿富汗执政前景心存疑虑。尽管当前阿富汗在政治、经济、外交和安全等方面面临一系列困难,但这些困难并非源自塔利班重新执政后的政策失误,而与当前面临的严重自然灾害、外援中断、常年兵祸等相关。从长远看,随着塔利班逐步恢复其国内秩序并履行其对国际社会的反恐承诺,未来阿富汗有望进入一个真正的和平与重建时期。

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Abstract:The withdrawal of U.S.troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 is undoubtedly a milestone event in the global war on terrorism since the September 11 attacks. It not only represents a major adjustment of the U.S.global war on terrorism and Afghanistan strategy,but also means that Afghanistan has entered the “post-U.S.era” or “post-U.S.military era” after the Taliban regained power. The global war on terrorism and the geopolitical l... 展开

Abstract:The withdrawal of U.S.troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 is undoubtedly a milestone event in the global war on terrorism since the September 11 attacks. It not only represents a major adjustment of the U.S.global war on terrorism and Afghanistan strategy,but also means that Afghanistan has entered the “post-U.S.era” or “post-U.S.military era” after the Taliban regained power. The global war on terrorism and the geopolitical landscape formed in Central Asia in the past two decades has also changed accordingly. Many countries have doubts about the future of Taliban rule in Afghanistan based on historical inertia,cultural bias,foreign policy and domestic political constraints. Although Afghanistan is currently facing a series of difficulties in politics,economy,diplomacy and security,the difficulties do not originate from the Taliban’s policy mistakes after its returning to power,but are related to the serious natural disasters,the interruption of foreign aid and the perennial military scourge. In the long run,as the Taliban gradually restores its domestic order and fulfills its anti-terrorism commitments to the international community,Afghanistan is expected to enter a period of genuine peace and reconstruction in the future.

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作者简介

王震:王震,上海社会科学院西亚北非研究中心研究员、博士生导师,主要从事国际安全与中东问题研究。