2019年缅甸形势分析

Abstract:2019 marks the fourth year of the Democratic League of Myanmar（NLD）ruling the country. The situation in Myanmar is generally stable. In terms of political situation，the NLD led and promoted the constitutional amendment and legislation work，started the preparatory work for the 2020 general election，adjusted the cabinet and consolidated power，but the ruling effect was criticized to some extent. As the general election approaches，party politics in Myanmar revolves around the campaign. The main political opponent of NLD is the USDP，and it also faces challenges from other political parties and ethnic minority political parties. In terms of military-government relations，the game over the procedure and content of the constitutional amendment and the political status of the military is intensified. In terms of economic situation，Myanmar’s economic growth is slowing down，and the investment and trade situation is not optimistic. Myanmar has taken some measures for economic development，but it still faces some problems hindering economic development. In terms of diplomacy，Myanmar’s bilateral and multilateral diplomacy have achieved fruitful results in parallel. Among them，China-Myanmar relations have been steadily improved while its diplomacy with European and American countries has faced some setbacks，and its relations with ASEAN countries have continued to deepen. Due to the influence of the “Rohingya” issue，Myanmar’s diplomacy is under great pressure to seek a further solution with the United Nations，especially the “genocide” case filed by the Gambia against the Myanmar on the International Court of Justice. With regard to the situation of national reconciliation，progress has been slow and the peace talks have not been interrupted，but no substantive results have been achieved. In terms of social situation，Myanmar is facing pressure from religious and nationalist aspects. Although some achievements have been made in social and cultural construction，media development and public opinion，the strict control against Rakhine still causes controversy.

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