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改元之年的日本与“新时代中日关系”构建——2019~2020年形势回顾与展望

作者:杨伯江 出版日期:2020年09月 报告页数:28 页 报告大小: 报告字数:27368 字 所属丛书:日本蓝皮书 所属图书:日本研究报告(2020) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2019年是日本改元之年,安倍内阁的施政与境况折射出平成30年历史延长线上国内外形势的大背景。安倍“超长期执政”的目标得以实现,但施政成本上升,政策目标实现度偏低,修宪梦想实际破灭。外部环境恶化对日本经济构成强大下行压力,加之增税助推效应,经济收缩趋势明显,增长动力不足成为困扰日本的长期难题。2019年,日本对外战略闪转腾挪,力推数字治理概念,主导规则制定方向,深入介入中东,彰显国际影响,力争在世界大变局中获取有利站位。安全战略持续转型,落实“... 展开

文章摘要:2019年是日本改元之年,安倍内阁的施政与境况折射出平成30年历史延长线上国内外形势的大背景。安倍“超长期执政”的目标得以实现,但施政成本上升,政策目标实现度偏低,修宪梦想实际破灭。外部环境恶化对日本经济构成强大下行压力,加之增税助推效应,经济收缩趋势明显,增长动力不足成为困扰日本的长期难题。2019年,日本对外战略闪转腾挪,力推数字治理概念,主导规则制定方向,深入介入中东,彰显国际影响,力争在世界大变局中获取有利站位。安全战略持续转型,落实“18防卫大纲”,强化自主力量建设,融合外交、安全与经济合作,投身大国多边博弈。但除对华关系外,日本周边关系普遍陷入僵局,“战后外交总决算”挫败。2019年,中日关系持续改善,确立起“新时代”目标方向,对话机制全面恢复,贸易投资稳步增长。同时,矛盾分歧依然突出,东海争端无明显降温之势,日本西南军事部署稳步推进,对华“复合平衡”动作增多。面向未来,谋求增强中日关系的战略稳定性、确定性,应是构建“新时代中日关系”的题中应有之义,强化经济纽带、拓展合作领域、持续增进双方共同利益是基本路径,保持对话磋商、落实“妥善处理敏感问题,建设性管控矛盾分歧”是重要保

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Abstract:The year 2019 marks Japan’s entering a new imperial era of Reiwa,when the situation and challenges the Abe administration is faced with reflect the continuity of Japan’s development following the past thirty years of the Heise era. In spite of Abe’s ongoing long-term administration,the cost of administration rises dramatically and the effect of policy implementation reduces,with its ambition of revising the constitution remainin... 展开

Abstract:The year 2019 marks Japan’s entering a new imperial era of Reiwa,when the situation and challenges the Abe administration is faced with reflect the continuity of Japan’s development following the past thirty years of the Heise era. In spite of Abe’s ongoing long-term administration,the cost of administration rises dramatically and the effect of policy implementation reduces,with its ambition of revising the constitution remaining disillusioned,the economy keeping deteriorated under the pressure of external environment and the lack of internal and external dynamics for growth becoming a long-term problem for Japan’s development. In 2019,Japan attempts to activate its foreign policy by promoting the concept of digital governance,striving for a favorable position in global power transition,accelerating the transformation of security policy,strengthening the military buildup based on the National Defense Planning Outline in 2018 and participating in the competition among great powers through diplomatic,economic and security cooperation. However,except for Sino-Japanese relations,Japan’s foreign policy to its neighbouring countries has been stuck in dilemma,and Abe’s attempt for “the final solution for Japan’s postwar diplomacy” has also suffered a frustration. In 2019,there has been a growing trend for the recovery of Sino-Japanese relations,with both sides setting up the direction of building the bilateral relations in the new era,all levels of dialogues restarting and trade and investment growing steadily. Meanwhile,there are still obvious controversies between the two sides,with the disputes over East China Sea remaining heated,Japan’s military deployment along its “Southwest boundary” being strengthened and its action of “complex hedging” against China becoming prominent. In the future,the essence of building the “Sino-Japanese relations in the new era” should be seeking for more strategic stability and certainty for the bilateral relations,with strengthening the economic ties and expanding the fields of cooperation based on mutual benefits as a fundamental way to build it,and maintaining all the dialogues to be effective in order to properly handle the sensitive issues and managing the contradictions in a constructive manner as an important guarantee for it.

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作者简介

杨伯江:杨伯江,法学博士,中国社会科学院日本研究所所长、研究员、博士生导师,研究方向为大国关系、亚太地区安全、日本问题。

楊伯江:暂无简介