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“一带一路”重大规划及项目投资的风险分析及预防

作者:孟令轲 出版日期:2020年08月 报告页数:11 页 报告大小: 报告字数:9586 字 所属丛书:“一带一路”蓝皮书 所属图书:“一带一路”建设发展报告(2020) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:随着“一带一路”建设的深入发展,我国企业在有关共建国家所做的规划和投资,很多具有周期长、投入大的特点,与之而来的风险问题值得高度重视。本文对“一带一路”重大规划及项目投资的风险进行了定义,多角度地分析了风险的分类、主要表现和成因。总体上看,主要是政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、第三方风险和腐败风险。在百年未有之大变局的宏观视野下,这几大风险交织影响,在中美博弈长期化的趋势下,要更加重视第三方风险;国际经济增速下滑,一些国家债务高企、宏观... 展开

文章摘要:随着“一带一路”建设的深入发展,我国企业在有关共建国家所做的规划和投资,很多具有周期长、投入大的特点,与之而来的风险问题值得高度重视。本文对“一带一路”重大规划及项目投资的风险进行了定义,多角度地分析了风险的分类、主要表现和成因。总体上看,主要是政治风险、经济风险、社会风险、第三方风险和腐败风险。在百年未有之大变局的宏观视野下,这几大风险交织影响,在中美博弈长期化的趋势下,要更加重视第三方风险;国际经济增速下滑,一些国家债务高企、宏观调控能力弱,内部经济危机不容忽视;要重视腐败风险,把“一带一路”建设成为廉洁之路。针对这些问题,本文提出要构建多元主体参与的防控风险体系;增强风险研判工作,建立全面的专业化的风险监控预警系统;完善法律支持;加强财政金融保险支持,化解资金风险;探索建立海外安保体系;加强反腐败建设。

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Abstract:With the in-depth development of the “Belt and Road” construction,many of the planning and investments made by Chinese enterprises in the B&R countries have the characteristics of long cycle and large investment,and the resulting risk issues are worthy of great attention. This paper defines the risks of major planning and project investment in terms of the “Belt and Road”,and analyzes the classification,main manifestations and... 展开

Abstract:With the in-depth development of the “Belt and Road” construction,many of the planning and investments made by Chinese enterprises in the B&R countries have the characteristics of long cycle and large investment,and the resulting risk issues are worthy of great attention. This paper defines the risks of major planning and project investment in terms of the “Belt and Road”,and analyzes the classification,main manifestations and causes of risks from multiple angles. Generally speaking,it is mainly political risk,economic risk,social risk,third-party risk and risk of corruption. Under the macro vision of the unprecedented changes in the past century,these major risks are intertwined with each other. Under the trend of long-term game between China and the United States,more attention shall be paid to third-party risks;the growth rate of the international economics is declining,some countries have high debts and weak macro-control capabilities,and the internal economic crisis cannot be ignored;attention shall be paid to the risk of corruption to build the Belt and Road into a clean road. In view of these issues,this paper proposes to build a risk prevention and control system involving multiple subjects;strengthen the work of risk assessment and establish a comprehensive and professional risk monitoring and early warning system;improve legal support;strengthen financial and insurance support to resolve capital risks;explore the establishment of an overseas security system;and strengthen anti-corruption construction.

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作者简介

孟令轲:孟令轲,中国工程咨询协会政策研究部副处长。