巴西大选透视及内政外交走势分析

Abstract:The 2018 Brazilian presidential election appeared to be one of the most divided and the most difficult to predict since the country’s re-democratization. On the one hand，the Brazilian democratic system is being challenged as never before due to the economic recession，high rates of violence and corruption scandal；on the other hand，this election has broken the hegemony dominated by the Workers Party（PT）and the Brazilian Social Democratic Party（PSDB）got the last 30 years marked by the rapid rise of far-right political forces and the fiercely left-right confrontation. In the end，Bolsonaro，the far-right nationalist known as “Brazilian Trump” won the election. The rise of Bolsonaro illustrates the rise of far-right populism in Brazil’s specific political and cultural environment，leading to the reshuffling of Brazil’s traditional political structure；in the mean while，the new government’s political ability will still be influenced and constrained by the traditional political system. It is foreseen that the new government’s ruling philosophy and policy proposition will undergo a huge change，but there is still room for flexibility in the degree of transformation.

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