2018～2019年拉美经济形势：复苏曲折，风险凸显

Abstract:In 2018，the recovery trend of Latin America and the Caribbean （LAC） economy which has rebounded from the bottom since 2017 was suppressed by the continuing escalated China-US trade frictions，the intensified fluctuations of international financial market and the super-election cycle in LAC countries. Economic fundamentals were characterized by slowing growth，rising inflation，widened current account deficits and intensifying currency devaluation. For the subregion，growth in Central America was better than in the Caribbean and South America. And there were also differences of growth rate among countries due to different external impact mechanisms and domestic reaction capacities. In terms of macro-economic policy，constrained by the severe fiscal deficit and the accelerated pace of interest rate increase in the United States，the room of fiscal and monetary policies in LAC countries has shrunk. In outlook of 2019，the global economy will still lie in the situation characterized by increasing uncertainty and highlighted risks. In view of lacking substantial improvement in the short term for external factors affecting Latin America，economic growth in LAC will still be under considerable pressure，and even in some cases severe challenges in which risks outweigh opportunities will occur.

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