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2017年伊朗经济形势及前景分析

作者:韩建伟 出版日期:2019年01月 报告页数:15 页 报告大小: 报告字数:11597 字 所属丛书:伊朗蓝皮书 所属图书:伊朗发展报告(2017~2018) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2017年伊朗经济面临越来越严峻的外部压力干扰,使得伊核协议带来的红利逐渐消失。特朗普以遏制伊朗为核心的中东战略再次将伊朗经济推入衰退的边缘。2017年伊朗经济总体上还能保持稳定,但是石油产出达到上限,非石油产出远远不够拉动经济,使得经济增长重新疲软。虽然关系民生的通胀问题、汇率问题及就业问题在2017年没有明显的恶化,也没有出现好转,长期累积的风险却在增加,对伊朗政治稳定产生了消极影响。伊朗政府试图推进一些改革政策,但是收效甚微。在2018年美国退... 展开

文章摘要:2017年伊朗经济面临越来越严峻的外部压力干扰,使得伊核协议带来的红利逐渐消失。特朗普以遏制伊朗为核心的中东战略再次将伊朗经济推入衰退的边缘。2017年伊朗经济总体上还能保持稳定,但是石油产出达到上限,非石油产出远远不够拉动经济,使得经济增长重新疲软。虽然关系民生的通胀问题、汇率问题及就业问题在2017年没有明显的恶化,也没有出现好转,长期累积的风险却在增加,对伊朗政治稳定产生了消极影响。伊朗政府试图推进一些改革政策,但是收效甚微。在2018年美国退出伊核协议之后,伊朗经济的发展前景更加晦暗不明。

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Abstract:In 2017,Iranian economy faced increasing external pressure,resulting in the loss of the dividends from JCPOA. Trump's Middle East strategy which aims to contain Iran has pushed Iran's economy to the brink of recession once again. Iran's economy remained stable in 2017 generally,however,oil output reached the upper limit and non-oil output was far from enough to pull the economy,which made economic growth weak again. While inflati... 展开

Abstract:In 2017,Iranian economy faced increasing external pressure,resulting in the loss of the dividends from JCPOA. Trump's Middle East strategy which aims to contain Iran has pushed Iran's economy to the brink of recession once again. Iran's economy remained stable in 2017 generally,however,oil output reached the upper limit and non-oil output was far from enough to pull the economy,which made economic growth weak again. While inflation,currency and employment issues have not worsened or improved significantly in 2017,long-term cumulative risks were increasing which had negative implications on Iran's political stability. Iran's government has tried to implement some reforms,but obtained little success. The prospects for Iran's economy are even dimmer after the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018.

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作者简介

韩建伟:韩建伟,上海外国语大学中东研究所副教授。