2018年我国价格总水平分析及2019年展望

Abstract:Against the background of stable and changeable economic growth and greater downward pressure，the overall price level in the first three quarters of 2018 has maintained a stable operation. Influenced by extreme weather disasters in summer，epidemic spread，international oil prices and sharp price increases in the rental market，CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.1% year-on-year compared with the first half of the year. Environmental policy support，and last year’s high base，PPI growth slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0% compared with the first half of the year. With the increasing downward pressure of the domestic economy，the rebound of seasonal demand，the decrease of imported inflation pressure and the support of environmental policy，it is expected that the price level will remain stable in the fourth quarter of 2018，with CPI rising by 2.4% and PPI rising by 2.8% year on year. Next year，the demand for steady growth will be significant，and the monetary and financial environment will be moderately tight. Considering the combined effects of import inflation pressure，pig cycle or early arrival，the total price level in 2019 will still run reasonably in the reasonable range. It is expected that CPI will rise by 2.3% over the same period last year，and PPI will rise by 2% over the same period last year.

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