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“埃尔多安经济学”和总统制下土耳其经济政策走向——从中央银行独立性的视角

作者:魏敏 出版日期:2018年10月 报告页数:21 页 报告大小: 报告字数:18017 字 所属图书:土耳其研究(2018年第1期,总第1期) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2018年6月24日,埃尔多安和其领导的正义与发展党在新一轮总统和议会选举中赢得大选,土耳其进入了政治体制和经济体制变革的新时期。作为新兴经济体,在逆全球化和贸易保护主义盛行的世界经济环境中,尤其是在美联储加息和世界经济复苏缓慢的双重压力下,土耳其经济增长面临前所未有的挑战。新内阁组织架构将中央银行置于财政部管理之下,使得未来土耳其货币政策尤其是中央银行的独立性更易受政府掣肘,再加上之前埃尔多安反对利率调整的态度和观点,土耳其长期经济增长的... 展开

文章摘要:2018年6月24日,埃尔多安和其领导的正义与发展党在新一轮总统和议会选举中赢得大选,土耳其进入了政治体制和经济体制变革的新时期。作为新兴经济体,在逆全球化和贸易保护主义盛行的世界经济环境中,尤其是在美联储加息和世界经济复苏缓慢的双重压力下,土耳其经济增长面临前所未有的挑战。新内阁组织架构将中央银行置于财政部管理之下,使得未来土耳其货币政策尤其是中央银行的独立性更易受政府掣肘,再加上之前埃尔多安反对利率调整的态度和观点,土耳其长期经济增长的不确定性预期加剧。回顾土耳其中央银行的演变,反思正义与发展党治下“埃尔多安经济学”的影响和土耳其的货币政策调整,有助于加深对土耳其经济发展成就和特殊性的再认识,对于探索包括土耳其在内的新兴经济体经济发展方向具有一定帮助。

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Abstract:On June 24,2018,Mr.Erdogan and the Justice Development Party won the general election in the new round of presidential and parliamentary elections.Turkey entered a new era of political and economic regime.As an emerging entity,Turkey is facing unprecedented challenges in economic growth under the dual pressures of anti-globalization and trade protectionism,especially under the pressure of the Fed's interest rate hike and the slow ... 展开

Abstract:On June 24,2018,Mr.Erdogan and the Justice Development Party won the general election in the new round of presidential and parliamentary elections.Turkey entered a new era of political and economic regime.As an emerging entity,Turkey is facing unprecedented challenges in economic growth under the dual pressures of anti-globalization and trade protectionism,especially under the pressure of the Fed's interest rate hike and the slow recovery of the world economy.The new cabinet puts the central bank under the management of the Ministry of Finance,making the future of Turkish monetary policy,especially the central bank,more vulnerable to government constraints.Meanwhile the attitude and views of president Erdogan's against interest rate adjustment.Uncertainty in economic growth is expected to increase. Reviewing the evolution of the Central Bank of Turkey,rethinking the influence of the “Erdoganomics” under the Justice Development Party and the adjustment of Turkey's monetary policy will help deepen the understanding of Turkey's economic development achievements and particularities.Turkey's experiences in economic development for the emerging economies is certainly helpful and deserve to explore and conclude widely.

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作者简介

魏敏:魏敏:中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所研究员,研究方向为世界经济、旅游经济学。