2018年中国金融状况分析与展望

Abstract:Systemic financial risk is that “the accumulation and diffusion process of key risk factors and the possibility of global financial crisis caused by key risk factors”. Based on the index system containing key risk factors，we synthesize FCI. The prediction shows that China financial conditions will show a downward trend in 2018，and there’s a possibility that local systemic financial risk taking place. The real estate market risk has significant systematic importance，which not only has a significant impact on financial leverage and asset price bubbles，but also impacts on economic growth and its trend and cycle components，so the stability of the real estate market is of great significance for financial risk governance，economic short-term “steady growth” and long-term “adjustment structure”. There’s a significant difference and relatively limited systematic importance in the influence of the risk of overcapacity，commercial banks’ non-performing loans and government debt on the new characteristics of financial risks. Financial shocks will inhibit the long-term trend of economic growth while increasing the uncertainty of long-term growth.

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