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关于中吉乌铁路西延至欧洲大陆的安全战略思考

文章摘要

中国经过中亚,与西亚、欧洲联系的陆地通道中,中吉乌铁路是一个重要的路线。中吉乌铁路向西,接通西亚、欧洲的线路主要有两条,向南可经伊朗到达西亚乃至南欧,向北可经哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯进入欧洲。此外,最近提出的“跨里海大桥”如果能够实施,可直接由土库曼斯坦跨越里海到达阿塞拜疆,然后经土耳其进入欧洲。在这些线路的选择中,我们无法回避中亚复杂的安全形势带来的风险。但这些安全问题在“一带一路”倡议提出前就已经存在,并不是直接针对“一带一路”建设而出现的。因此,在中亚安全问题上,我们应该保持平常心态,不要将这些安全问题特殊化和泛化,也不要看得过分严重。我们还应该区分“可合作安全”和“不可合作安全”,更好地应对该地区的安全挑战。

Abstract

China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway is one of the most significant land passages connecting China,Central Asia,West Asia,and Europe. There are two lines to extend the railway toward the West and then connect West Asia and Europe:the south line is to get West Asia and South Europe through Iran,the north one is to go to Europe by Kazakhstan and Russia. What’s more,the project of a cross-Caspian Sea bridge,which was recently developed,provides a direct connection between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan by crossing Caspian Sea and then get Europe through Turkey,if it could be carried out. We could not afford to ignore the risks caused by the complicated security situation in Central Asia. However,these risks have existed long before the “One Belt and One Road” strategy was launched and don’t take the strategy as a target. So we should take it easy and avoid specializing and generalizing them,and do not overestimate the seriousness. How to distinguish the “cooperative security issues” from “non-cooperative security issues” is also essential for us to deal with the security challenges in this area.

作者简介
杨恕:杨恕,兰州大学中亚研究所所长教授、博士生导师,主要研究方向为中亚、反分裂、反恐、地缘政治、国际关系理论等。
王术森:王术森,兰州大学马克思主义学院博士研究生。