电动汽车替代燃油汽车前景对未来能源需求的影响分析

Abstract:This report reviews the development of global and China’s electric vehicle（EV）industry，and analyze how this development will influence future energy mix of China with background through the China Energy Modeling System. The result shows that the development of EV will have a sound impact to energy mix in future，raising the demand of electricity. Thus China needs to enhance her policy on coal-power generation and promote the development of natural gas-power more quickly，otherwise the effects of coal-reduction policy will be mitigated by this fast demand. Meanwhile，this report also suggests China should encourage the competition among different technical routes of EV，including pure EV，PHECV，Hybrid，etc. This competition will promote the development of the whole industry as well as technological updating.

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