中国金融状况分析与展望（2017～2018）

Abstract:This paper extends FCI with key risk factors from the perspective of systemic risk impact，and constructs the financial climate index system using FCI as a synchronization indicator，including the financial consensus index，the financial leading index and the financial lagging index. Based on this，we predicted and analyzed China’s financial situation. The results show that among the key risk factors，the risk of house price volatility and the risk inertia of the non-performing loans of the banking industry are obvious，and they are also affected by the impact of other factors. Risk monitoring is needed. The capacity-to-production risk is significantly affected by other factors. Supplementary economic policies and regulatory measures should be adopt so as to ensure the stability. It will probably achieve stable economic growth in 2017，and it will be the long-term favorable trend. However，some time in the future，higher transfer probability is in risk accumulation zone，and there are other factors that affect the stability of China’s financial situation. Therefore，more attention should be paid to the prevention and control of systemic risk.

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