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稳健中性取向下的货币金融运行

作者:闫先东 刘西 苗大林 出版日期:2018年01月 报告页数:15 页 报告大小: 报告字数:13817 字 所属丛书:经济蓝皮书 所属图书:2018年中国经济形势分析与预测 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2017年我国经济运行总体平稳,前三季度,GDP同比增长6.9%,固定资产投资(不含农户)名义同比增长7.5%,CPI同比上涨1.5%,全国服务业生产指数同比增长8.3%,全国财政收入同口径同比增长9.7%,全国财政支出同比增长11.4%。M2同比增速呈逐月放缓趋势,人民币存款增速稳中有降,贷款增速保持平稳。债券发行规模下降,交易规模回升,人民币对美元汇率小幅贬值。同时,环保限产、棚改货币化安置、地方债、银行信贷等产生的潜在风险较大。应把握好稳增长、防风险和控赤字的平衡... 展开

文章摘要:2017年我国经济运行总体平稳,前三季度,GDP同比增长6.9%,固定资产投资(不含农户)名义同比增长7.5%,CPI同比上涨1.5%,全国服务业生产指数同比增长8.3%,全国财政收入同口径同比增长9.7%,全国财政支出同比增长11.4%。M2同比增速呈逐月放缓趋势,人民币存款增速稳中有降,贷款增速保持平稳。债券发行规模下降,交易规模回升,人民币对美元汇率小幅贬值。同时,环保限产、棚改货币化安置、地方债、银行信贷等产生的潜在风险较大。应把握好稳增长、防风险和控赤字的平衡,保持货币流动性合理适度,调节好流动性的结构。

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Abstract:In the first three quarters,GDP grew by 6.9%,fixed asset investment(excluding peasant households)increased by 7.5%,CPI increased by 1.5%,service industry index grew by 8.3%,the national fiscal revenue grew 9.7%,and the national fiscal expenditure increased 11.4% over the same period of previous year respectively. M2 growth slowed month by month,RMB deposits grew steadily,and loan growth remained stable. Bond issuance size is... 展开

Abstract:In the first three quarters,GDP grew by 6.9%,fixed asset investment(excluding peasant households)increased by 7.5%,CPI increased by 1.5%,service industry index grew by 8.3%,the national fiscal revenue grew 9.7%,and the national fiscal expenditure increased 11.4% over the same period of previous year respectively. M2 growth slowed month by month,RMB deposits grew steadily,and loan growth remained stable. Bond issuance size is declined,transaction size picked up,and RMB depreciates slightly against the U.S. dollar. At the same time,there exists potential risks in production cut for environment,squatter settlement rebuilding,local government debts and bank loans. It is suggested to keep a balance between steady growth,risk prevention and deficit control,maintain a reasonable and appropriate currency liquidity,and adjust the liquidity structure.

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作者简介

闫先东:闫先东,任职于中国人民银行调查统计司。

刘西:刘西,任职于中国人民银行调查统计司。

苗大林:苗大林,任职于中国人民银行调查统计司。