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宏观经济背景下的中国人口发展态势和健康状况研究

作者:许静 出版日期:2017年09月 报告页数:15 页 报告大小: 报告字数:11372 字 所属图书:经济发展“新常态”理论与创新 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:本文通过分析中国GDP增长、低生育水平、老龄化程度、慢性病患病率、死亡疾病谱以及死因构成的变化趋势,为国家政府部门制定相关政策提供实证依据。基于时间序列分析视角,采用历史性纵贯描述性分析方法,对中国GDP增长率、总和生育率、老龄化比重、患病率、疾病死亡率等死因构成的发展变化进行系统性分析。结果显示,2010年起国民经济增长进入下行通道,GDP保持7%左右中高速增长;2000年起中国开始进入世界超低生育国家行列,同时步入全球老龄化发展较快国家行列;城市居... 展开

文章摘要:本文通过分析中国GDP增长、低生育水平、老龄化程度、慢性病患病率、死亡疾病谱以及死因构成的变化趋势,为国家政府部门制定相关政策提供实证依据。基于时间序列分析视角,采用历史性纵贯描述性分析方法,对中国GDP增长率、总和生育率、老龄化比重、患病率、疾病死亡率等死因构成的发展变化进行系统性分析。结果显示,2010年起国民经济增长进入下行通道,GDP保持7%左右中高速增长;2000年起中国开始进入世界超低生育国家行列,同时步入全球老龄化发展较快国家行列;城市居民是慢性病患病的主要群体,呼吸系统疾病、脑血管病和心脏病成为慢性病高发病种;危害健康长寿的三大主要疾病为恶性肿瘤、脑血管病、心脏病,约为构成城乡居民死亡原因的65%左右;前五位重大慢性病构成死亡原因85%以上,2010年是中国城乡居民死亡疾病谱发生显著变化的关键转折点。由此可见,中国国民经济发展开始进入新常态,人口年龄结构老化、慢性病患病率高发与致死率高成为中国社会面临的巨大挑战,慢性病综合治理刻不容缓。

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Abstract:To analyze the development trends of the growth of GDP,ultra-low fertility,ageing,chronic diseases morbidity,diseases death tree and structure on cause of death in China,this research will provide empirical evidences on the reformation of policy to government.Based on the time series analytical perspective,making use of historical longitudinal descriptive analysis as methodology,this research conducted the systematical analysis... 展开

Abstract:To analyze the development trends of the growth of GDP,ultra-low fertility,ageing,chronic diseases morbidity,diseases death tree and structure on cause of death in China,this research will provide empirical evidences on the reformation of policy to government.Based on the time series analytical perspective,making use of historical longitudinal descriptive analysis as methodology,this research conducted the systematical analysis on the development trend of growth rate of GDP,Total Fertility Rate (TFR),proportion of 65+,morbidity,death rate of diseases,structure on cause of death in China.Results revealed that since 2010,China’s economy development went downstairs in the track,whereas,GDP kept the sustainable increase by a medium-to-high speed of 7%.Since 2000,China came to ultra-low fertility country rank around the world,meanwhile,which also stepped into ageing development country rank with rapidest speed around the world.In China,residents in urban were the major population who suffered from chronic diseases.Breathe system disease,brain vessel disease and coronary heart disease became to exposed type with the higher frequency occurrence in chronic diseases.Whereas,malignant tumor,brain vessel disease and coronary heart disease were composed of 65%cause of death in chronic diseases above,which jeopardized on the health and longevity of residents in city and rural of China severely.Moreover,five critical chronic diseases were composed of 85%cause of death in chronic diseases,so the key point of significant transition in death tree of residents who suffered from chronic diseases in China was 2010.Therefore,China’s economy began to enter the “New Normal State”,meanwhile,China’s society has to face the huge challenges which are aging of population age structure,higher frequency occurrence of morbidity and higher risk of lethality in chronic diseases.Therefore,it is urgent to implement the comprehensive control on chronic diseases in China.

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作者简介

许静:许静,中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所博士后,国家卫生和计划生育委员会统计信息中心副研究员(资格)。研究方向:健康经济学、家庭人口学、应用统计方法、计量经济方法、行为科学与政策评估。