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也门危机发展态势及其相关影响

作者:刘欣路 出版日期:2017年09月 报告页数:15 页 报告大小: 报告字数:12192 字 所属图书:国别和区域研究(2017年第1期,总第3期) 浏览人数: 下载人数:

文章摘要:2011年“阿拉伯之春”爆发,受突尼斯、埃及等国街头运动的影响,也门主要城市均爆发了反政府示威游行,要求执政已长达33年的总统萨利赫下台。虽然萨利赫软硬兼施,谋求到2013年总统任期结束后下野,但在部落和军队倒戈、西方及海湾国家施压的背景下,萨利赫被迫接受海合会的调解方案,将权力移交给副总统哈迪并流亡沙特。西方国家将也门的政权过渡模式视为和平过渡的范例,并称其为“也门模式”,但也门并没有从此走向和平、稳定与发展,反而在以往脆弱的政治平衡被打破后... 展开

文章摘要:2011年“阿拉伯之春”爆发,受突尼斯、埃及等国街头运动的影响,也门主要城市均爆发了反政府示威游行,要求执政已长达33年的总统萨利赫下台。虽然萨利赫软硬兼施,谋求到2013年总统任期结束后下野,但在部落和军队倒戈、西方及海湾国家施压的背景下,萨利赫被迫接受海合会的调解方案,将权力移交给副总统哈迪并流亡沙特。西方国家将也门的政权过渡模式视为和平过渡的范例,并称其为“也门模式”,但也门并没有从此走向和平、稳定与发展,反而在以往脆弱的政治平衡被打破后陷入持久而深重的危机之中。当前的也门乱象丛生,国家处于崩溃的边缘,且成为地区安全问题的旋涡和大国博弈的舞台。

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Abstract:In 2011,the “Arab Spring” broke out. Affected by the street movements of Tunisia,Egypt and some other countries,the major cities in Yemen also witnessed an outbreak of anti-government demonstrations,demanding President Saleh,who had been in the ruling for as long as 33 years,step down. Although he used a carrot and stick method to seek to end his presidency by 2013,Saleh had to accept the GCC mediation program by transferring... 展开

Abstract:In 2011,the “Arab Spring” broke out. Affected by the street movements of Tunisia,Egypt and some other countries,the major cities in Yemen also witnessed an outbreak of anti-government demonstrations,demanding President Saleh,who had been in the ruling for as long as 33 years,step down. Although he used a carrot and stick method to seek to end his presidency by 2013,Saleh had to accept the GCC mediation program by transferring power to Vice President Hadi and exiling in Saudi Arabia in the context of tribal and military rebellion and the pressure from western and Gulf countries. Yemen’s political transition is seen by western countries as an example of peaceful transition and referred to as the “Yemen model”. However,Yemen fails to move towards peace,stability and development since the transition;instead,it has been trapped in a deep crisis after the fragile political balance was broken. Given the current chaotic situation,Yemen as a country is in the brink of collapse,and has become a regional security vortex as well as the stage for the game of great powers.

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作者简介

刘欣路:刘欣路 北京外国语大学阿拉伯学院副教授。