贸易开放促进经济增长的效应有多大？基于面板门槛模型的估计

Abstract:Under the background of such an opening world，how does the development of foreign trade affect economic growth，and what changes will happen to the mechanism as opening deepens？From the perspective of regional market evolution，this paper studies the link between China’s trade opening and local growth. We show that the promoting effect of trade on local economic growth has to rely on the progress of marketization，and it will take on an obvious threshold effect：when the level of market development is higher than the threshold condition，trade opening will produce a very significant effect on growth；when the marketization is below the specific threshold conditions，the promoting effect will be greatly restricted and cannot be well released. Therefore，for better promoting effect，it is not only imperative to continue to deepen the opening level so as to press ahead the new system of open economy，but also necessary to strengthen the integration for domestic market from different aspects so as to improve and cultivate the economic mechanism and market environment which are aligned with local development.

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