《中国-东盟全面经济合作框架协议服务贸易协议》促进了双边服务贸易吗

Abstract:Evaluating the results of implementing the liberalization agreements on of trade in service has always been an important research issue in the field of regional economic integration. Using data from the World Bank’s Trade in Services Database，we adopt the method of Difference-in-Difference combined with propensity matching score（PSM-DID）to systematically estimate the effects of Agreement on Trade in Services of the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation between the People’s Republic of China And the Association of Southeast Asian Nations（“China-ASEAN Agreement on Trade in Services” in abbreviation）on the bilateral trade in services between China and ASEAN countries. We find no robust evidence that the implementation of China-ASEAN Agreement on Trade in Services promotes the bilateral import and export on aggregated level. Estimation on categorized data shows that the agreement has helped increase China’s import of royalties and license services，as well as personal，cultural and recreational services from ASEAN countries. However，it has negative effects on China’s two-way trade of construction services and the export of insurance services with its ASEAN trade partners. The reason which leads to the above results is that the opening measures in the agreement are consistent with neither China’s comparative advantages nor the dominant mode in which related services are provided. For better promoting the development of trade in service within the framework of regional economic integration，follow-up negotiations are supposed to avoid the above problems.

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