我国对外贸易利益分析——基于1981～2015年贸易条件的视角

Abstract:Data analysis indicates that China’s Term of Trade（ToT）shows as an upwardU curve after the reform and opening up in the past 40 years. The bottom appeared in 2011. Before 2011，the curve had the downward trend with volatility，and then picked up afterwards. Perceived from an external economic environment，bulk commodity prices continue to slump which creates a micro foundation for the improvement of price ToT. From the industry perspective，export industries presents obvious differentiation and optimization，which brings about improvement of the price ToT，and in turn，this improvement largely results from the optimization of export commodity structure，especially the rapid growth of export of electromechanical and high-tech products，which provides the micro foundation for the lasting improvement of the price ToT.，Thanks to the rapid growth in the quantity of exports，income and factor ToT have shown a steady improvement trend. The improvement of ToT means that our country is gradually getting rid of the long-term deterioration of trade gains and welfare. The international comparison reveals that the long-term economic growth is not achieved by extensive and massive export. Finally，based on the empirical analysis of the macro data of 1981-2015，the price ToT of our country are closely related to export trade mode，ownership of export enterprises，type of capital intensity and commodity structure of export.

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